000
WTPZ35 KNHC 052044
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
 
...ERICK APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 102.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.  
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART