000
WTPZ35 KNHC 201733
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
 
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS RICK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO LA PAZ...AND FOR
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO NORTHWARD THROUGH
ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.0N 110.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
 
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI