000
WTPZ35 KNHC 200537
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
 
...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD....REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.
  
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY FOR THE
COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT
270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
  
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.3N 111.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN