000
WTPZ35 KNHC 192336
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
500 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
 
...RICK STILL WEAKENING...NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES
...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.  RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RICK IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.8N 111.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB
  
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN