000
WTPZ35 KNHC 192035
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
 
...RICK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES
...525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. 
 
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 111.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS