000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191432
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE TO INVESTIGATE LATER TODAY...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 80
MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING RICK
LATER TODAY. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.8N 111.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN