000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191136
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
500 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009
 
...MAJOR HURRICANE RICK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES
...590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
 
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  RICK IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. 
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
 
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.7N 111.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN