000
WTPZ35 KNHC 112347
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
...NORBERT OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FINAL LANDFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO AND FOR 
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE AND FOR THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO
ALTATA.
 
THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED THIS EVENING.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...WEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
 
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND
MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...275 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...25.7 N...110.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN