000
WTPZ35 KNHC 112035
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
  
...EYE OF NORBERT EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HEADING 
FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO
SOUTHWWARD TO ALTATA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE
LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
 
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...NORBERT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT VERY SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL. 
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...25.2 N...110.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA