000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...NORBERT SOON TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...WEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA... BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.3 N...111.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA