000
WTPZ35 KNHC 200232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007
 
...KIKO HAS NOT STRENGTHEN YET...ITS FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN...

AT 8 PM PDT...03000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 445 MILES
...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
 
KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCERTAIN.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
 
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...105.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA