000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190251
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO REFORMING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.  WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE
ADJUSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST.  AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
 
KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND KIKO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.
 
KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...104.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA