000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182031
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007
200 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.  ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
 
KIKO IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.  A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF KIKO NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...103.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN