000
WTPZ34 KNHC 232037
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 103.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 103.5 West.  Roslyn is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion 
is forecast to continue through tonight.  On the forecast track, 
Roslyn or its remnants will continue to move inland over central 
Mexico. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening
and dissipate tonight or early Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland
over central portions of Mexico during the next few hours.
 
RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches 
of rain across southern Durango, Sinaloa into portions of Nayarit, 
Zacatecas and Jalisco.  A maximum storm total rainfall of 10 
inches is expected.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and 
landslides in areas of rugged terrain.  
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown