000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico through this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the warning area should gradually subside this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown