000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231452 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...CENTER OF ROSLYN MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 105.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Las Islas Marias. All warnings south of Punta Mita have been discontinued as well as the Hurricane Watch from Escuinapa to Mazatlan. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Mita to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 105.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 124 mph (200 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland along the track of Roslyn into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening storm surge with significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds through today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown