000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HURRICANE ROSLYN EXPECTED TO DELIVER DAMAGING WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 106.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF TEPIC MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Escuinapa * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo * North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 106.1 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall later this morning, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches), based on earlier Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occuring over Islas Marias and are expected to reach the coast within the mainland hurricane warning area soon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula through this morning and within the warning area north of Escuinapa later today. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the northern coast. Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening storm surge with significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake