000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222053 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS THAT ROSLYN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 106.6W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from El Roblito to Escuinapa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Escuinapa * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo * North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next few hours, followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening could occur tonight, Roslyn is expected to at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula this afternoon or tonight, and within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the northern coast. Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven