000 WTPZ34 KNHC 220244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 105.6W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning along the west-central coast of Mexico north of San Blas to El Roblito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.6 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by turn to the north on Saturday and a north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and early Saturday, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn could be near major hurricane intensity when it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch