000 WTPZ34 KNHC 212042 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022 ...ROSLYN NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 105.0W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Mita northward to San Blas, and for the Islas Marias. The Government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from El Roblito northward to Mazatlan. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this evening. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight, followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico: Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven