000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...ROSLYN STRENGTHENS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 103.6W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Pacific coast of Mexico south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.6 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Saturday and a northward motion Saturday night into Sunday. On the forecast track, Roslyn is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday, then approach the west-central coast of Mexico on Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the coast of mainland Mexico by Saturday evening, with tropical storm conditions possible on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart