612 WTPZ34 KNHC 201448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven