000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200841 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 101.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 101.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected Friday and Friday night, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and then become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's outer rainbands may produce heavy rainfall of 1 to 4 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. The system is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg