000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014 ...SIMON LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 116.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SIMON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH