000
WTPZ34 KNHC 070831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 116.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SIMON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA