000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061433 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 117.4W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND SIMON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SWELLS FROM SIMON ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH