000
WTPZ34 KNHC 050842
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014

...SIMON RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 116.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SIMON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SIMON MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  STARTING
ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART