000
WTPZ34 KNHC 030235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

...SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SIMON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA