000
WTPZ34 KNHC 022049
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

...SIMON STRENGTHENS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. SIMON IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN