000
WTPZ34 KNHC 212046
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011
 
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE TOMORROW.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SWELLS WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN