000
WTPZ34 KNHC 140232
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009

...PATRICIA LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...80 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
 
PATRICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PATRICIA WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PATRICIA WILL PROBABLY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

PATRICIA COULD STILL PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.6N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE