000
WTPZ33 KNHC 121457
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...BUD WEAKENING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 108.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in southern Baja California Sur, Mexico, should monitor
the progress of Bud.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Bud
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.4 West. Bud
is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected later today through Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Bud will be approaching
Baja California Sur on Thursday and near or over Baja California Sur
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Bud is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Further weakening, possibly
rapid at times, is expected during the next 48 hours, and Bud is
forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night.
However, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it
approaches Baja California Sur on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches through Thursday.  These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and will
begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart