000
WTPZ33 KNHC 180835
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
TODAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. 
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN