000
WTPZ33 KNHC 140901
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
...MANUEL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON ITS APPROACH TO MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WESTWARD FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL MANUEL MAKES
LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN