000
WTPZ33 KNHC 110230
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008

...HEAVY RAINS THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOWELL...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD
TO CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. 
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LOWELL INTERACTS BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA IN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...23.1 N...111.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB