000
WTPZ32 KNHC 162033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Tara Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
warning and tropical storm watch for southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Tara was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
very slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
so.  On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast as Tara's circulation
interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and the system
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce additional rainfall of
3 to 6 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and western
Jalisco through tonight, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart