000
WTPZ32 KNHC 152037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TINY TARA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located by satellite data near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.5
West. Tara is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is expected during the
the next day or so, although the tropical storm could become
stationary at times. A slightly faster westward motion is forecast
to begin after mid-week.  On the forecast track, the center of Tara
is expected to remain near or just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

A reporting station in the coastal mountains in the state of
Michoacan recently reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.12 inches
(130 mm) as of 1200 UTC or 700 AM CDT this morning.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart