000
WTPZ32 KNHC 201431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...WEAKENING POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA