000 WTPZ32 KNHC 201131 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 ...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA