000 WTPZ32 KNHC 192031 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014 ...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA