000 WTPZ32 KNHC 182037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A WEAKER POLO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA