000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013 ...RAYMOND WEAKENING... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 101.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY...AND RAYMOND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RAYMOND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN OBSERVING STATION NEAR ACAPULCO REPORTED A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 7.63 INCHES...194 MM...IN THE 48 HOURS ENDING AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY IF THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN