000 WTPZ32 KNHC 211432 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013 ...MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND STATIONARY SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 102.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST. RAYMOND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAYMOND IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY IF THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. AN OBSERVING STATION NEAR ACAPULCO REPORTED A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.83 INCHES...72 MM...IN THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 1200 UTC...500 AM PDT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN