000 WTPZ32 KNHC 210530 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 ...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST. RAYMOND HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF OAXACA AND MICHOACAN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA