000 WTPZ32 KNHC 210254 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013 ...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 102.0W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY. RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF OAXACA AND MICHOACAN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG