000 WTPZ32 KNHC 060546 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 1100 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013 ...LORENA CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL STORM PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 107.8W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LORENA WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND THEN BE NEAR OR OVER LAND BY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN LORENA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...LORENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA