000
WTPZ32 KNHC 052045
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR LORENA LATER
TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR
LORENA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...LORENA WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LORENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
EARLY ON SATURDAY.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH