000 WTPZ32 KNHC 051749 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 106.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AQUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD BE REFORMING FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH