000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260236 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 105.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN