000 WTPZ32 KNHC 252338 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 500 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012 ...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 105.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN